Iraq democracy project
	B. Moon

When the neocons of the Bush administration put forth the preposterous proposition that Iraq could be transformed into a democracy within a reasonable time horizon I began investigating the historical record of democratization in similar autocracies. Since I originally compiled a simple count in a series of charts, the project has grown in response to reviewers. Thus, there are now many versions floating around, reflecting its evolution (and devolution) between 2005 and 2009.

While the overall conclusions do not differ, the analysis was performed on several different data sets and, as the audience varied, so did the focus. The definitive version to be cited is certainly the one published by International Security, which received the Williamson Prize for outstanding journal publication in the social sciences at Lehigh, but earlier versions may be of interest for different purposes. For example, the July 2007 version is much heavier on the history of Iraq, and the 2005 ISA paper (and the 2006 update) is more explicit about coding issues..

• "Can Iraq democratize? How long will it take?" Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, March 1-5, 2005, Honolulu.
• "Can Iraq democratize? How long will it take?" Update to ISA 2005.
• "Can Iraq democratize? How long will it take?" December 2006 version, submitted to Security Studies in first round review.
• "Can Iraq democratize? How long will it take?" July 2007 version, submitted to Security Studies in second round review.
• "Long Time Coming: Prospects for Democracy in Iraq," International Security 33, 4 (Spring 2009): 115-148. PLEASE CITE THIS